姓名

应恺然

职称

副研究员

性别

女

学位

博士

电话

Email

kairanying@ninhm.ac.cn

通讯地址

北京市海淀区安宁庄路7号（100085）

简历：

2004/09-2008/07，南京信息工程大学，大气科学，理学学士

2008/09-2013/07，北京师范大学，全球环境变化，理学博士

2013/07-2018/12，中国科学院大气物理研究所，助理研究员

2018/12-2022/08，中国科学院大气物理研究所，副研究员

2022/09- 应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院，副研究员

研究方向

气候变率及可预报性

学科类别：

大气科学

承担项目情况：

1)         2014.01-2017.12     土壤湿度季节可预报信号的时空特征及其在CMIP模式评估中的应用，国家自然科学基金（青年项目），主持

2)         2015.01-2018.12     全球大气再分析技术研究与数据集研制，公益性行业科研专项，课题骨干

3)         2016.01-2021.12     气候多尺度变化与年代际重大事件的归因及预估，国家重点研发计划，专题负责人

4)         2016.01-2021.12     基于统计与数值模式的多污染物数据场构建，国家重点研发计划，专题负责人

5)         2018.01-2022.12     一带一路气候变化和灾害风险，战略性先导专项，课题骨干

6)         2020.01-2025.12     约束全球季风预估不确定性方法的研究，国家重点研发计划，专题负责人

7)         2020.01-2025.12     区域碳循环过程与区域地球系统模式，国家自然科学基金（联合项目），专题负责人

代表论著：

1)         2023 Seasonal predictable signals of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall in existing monsoon indices, Climate Dynamics, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06827-2 第一作者 (SCI二区)

2)        2023 Seasonal predictable source of the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall in addition to the ENSO–AO, Climate Dynamics, 60, 2459–2480, doi: 10.1007/s00382-022-06461-4 第一作者 (SCI二区)

3)         2022 Ocean-atmosphere teleconnections play a key role in the interannual variability of seasonal gross primary production in China, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 39, 1329-1342, doi: 10.1007/s00376-021-1226-4 第一作者 (SCI二区)

4)         2019 Variability and predictability of decadal mean temperature and precipitation over China in the CCSM4 Last Millennium simulation, Climate Dynamics, 51(7-8), 2989-3008, doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-4060-8 第一作者 (SCI二区)

5)         2019 Predictable and unpredictable modes of seasonal mean precipitation over Northeast China, Climate Dynamics, 50(7-8), 3081-3095, doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3795-6 第一作者 (SCI二区)

6)         2017 Identifying the predictable and unpredictable patterns of spring-to-autumn precipitationover eastern China, Climate Dynamics,48(9), 3183-3206,doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3258-5 第一作者 (SCI二区)

7)         2016 Predictable signals in seasonal mean soil moisture simulated with observation-based atmospheric forcing over China, Climate Dynamics, 47(7), 2373-2395, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2969-3 第一作者 (SCI二区)

8)         2015 Interannual variability of autumn to spring seasonal precipitation in eastern China, Climate Dynamics，45(1), 253-271, doi：10.1007/s00382-014-2411-2 第一作者 (SCI二区)

9)         2013 Predictable Signals of Seasonal Precipitation in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley, International Journal of Climatology, 33, 3002-3015, doi:10.1002/joc.3644 第一作者 (SCI三区)

10)     2014 Slow and Intraseasonal Modes of the Boreal Winter Atmospheric Circulation Simulated by CMIP5 Models, Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 7: 34-41, doi:10.3878/j.issn.1674-2834.13.0058 第一作者 (CSCD)

11)     2020 Identifying the sources of seasonal predictability based on climate memory analysis and variance decomposition, Climate Dynamics, 55, 3239-3252. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05444-7 通讯作者 (SCI二区)

12)     2018 Modes of Interannual Variability in Northern Hemisphere Winter Atmosphere Circulation in CMIP5 Models: Evaluation, Projection and Role of External Forcing, Climate Dynamics, 50(7-8), 2845-2865, doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3776-9 通讯作者 (SCI二区)

13)     2022 Spatially varying in CO 2 concentrations regulates carbon uptake in the Northern Hemisphere, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. doi: 10.1029/2022JD037732 第三作者 (SCI二区)

14)     2021 Evaluation of Surface Relative Humidity in China from the CRA-40 and Current Reanalyses, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 38, 1958-1976 第五作者 (SCI二区)

15)     2021 China's interannual variability of net primary production is dominated by the Central China region, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 126(4), e2020JD033362 第三作者 (SCI二区)

16)     2017 Simulated Decadal Modes of the NH Atmospheric Circulation Arising from Intra-decadalvariability, external forcingand slow-decadal climate processes, Climate Dynamics，48(7), 2635-2652, doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3229-x 第六作者 (SCI二区)

17)     2017 Quantifying the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcings to climate changes over land during 1946-2005, Climatic Change, 144(3), 505-517 第三作者 (SCI二区)

18)     2015 Effects of anthropogenic aerosols on temperature changes in China during the twentieth century based on CMIP5 models, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 125(3), 529-540, doi: 10.1007/s00704-015-1527-6 第三作者 (SCI三区)